Trump mulls next move as Iran ceasefire is on ‘life support’

“How stupid. Are they stupid people?” Trump said. “They think that, well, I’ll get tired of this or I’ll get bored, or I’ll have some pressure. But there’s no pressure. There’s no pressure at all. We’re going to have a complete victory. We’ve already, in theory, had a complete victory from the military standpoint.”

DON’T WORRY, TRUMP HAS A PLAN: With Iran digging in — demanding an end to the blockade of its ports, continued control of the Strait, and negotiating nuclear issues only after the war ends — Trump said, “I have a plan.”

“You know, in war, you have to change. You have to be flexible,” Trump said. “You have a lot of plans, but you have to do different plans on different days. But I have a great plan.”

“The plan is very simple,” Trump explained. “The plan is that they cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they didn’t say that in their letter.”

Some analysts believe Trump is contemplating a return to major combat operations to jolt Iran out of its intransigence. “Both sides have a sense of entitlement right now,” Karim Sadjadpour, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on CNN last night. 

“President Trump says we’ve spent so much on this war. We’re the superpower. And he’s demanding a very strong deal from strong concessions from the Iranians. Likewise, in Tehran, they say, we’ve sacrificed so much. This war has cost us so much. And they are demanding a strong deal from the United States. And for that reason, the two sides are very far apart,” Sadjadpour said. “And I think Trump’s instinct is to increase the pain on Tehran, to try to bring them to the table.”

STALEMATE OR DISASTER? As the ceasefire heads into its second month, Middle East expert Brett McGurk says the conflict is now locked in a diplomatic stalemate, with each side waiting for the other to blink.

“It comes down to the Strait of Hormuz,” McGurk said on CNN. “Diplomacy is deadlocked. Iran has an asymmetrical advantage. They can basically shoot a drone at any ships, and no ships will go through. And we have our blockade, which is increasing economic pressure on Iran. But that’s basically where we are.”

McGurk argued that Trump has three unpalatable options: Endure a test of wills and wait for economic pressure to bring the regime around, concede Iranian sovereignty over the strait, or impose military conditions that allow ships to pass.

“This is not a stalemate. This is a disaster for the United States,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said on the same program. “Iran is much more powerful today than they were at the beginning of this conflict. Notwithstanding the damage that we have done to Iran, the intelligence reports suggest, and this has been publicly reported, that they still have the majority of their missiles, the majority of their drones. They still have a nuclear program. And any time they want, they can reopen military operations in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“I don’t know what the president is going to do. I’m out of the business of trying to predict what he is doing,” Murphy said. “I think the best prospect is for the president to end the blockade and declare an end to the war, right now.”

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. 

HAPPENING TODAY: A HEGSETH CAINE DOUBLEHEADER: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Dan Caine are scheduled for back-to-back appearances before the House and Senate Appropriations Subcommittees to testify about President Trump’s $1.5 Trillion budget request for the Department of Defense for fiscal 2027. The House hearing is set for 8 a.m., and the Senate hearing is at 10:30 a.m.

“The $1.5 trillion budget will ensure that the United States continues to maintain the world’s most powerful and capable military as we grapple with a complex threat environment across multiple theaters,” Hegseth testified last month. “By supercharging our defense industrial capacity and transforming how the department does business, we are restoring American commercial dominance at a pace unseen in generations.”

HEGSETH VS. KELLY REDUX: With Hegseth threatening to open another “legal review” of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) for “blabbing” about a classified briefing during his appearance Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation, Kelly is accusing Hegseth of trying to muzzle him.

“I think it comes down to it, he doesn’t want to be held accountable,” Kelly told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “They’ve expended an enormous amount of munitions.”

“Nothing I said was classified. We had this discussion in an open hearing. When you are going to hit 15,000 targets, you’re going to use a lot of munitions,” Kelly said.

During the April 30 hearing, Kelly said, “Open source reporting has estimated that the military has used an outrageous number of Patriots. I’m not even going to say the numbers, but a lot of Patriots, a lot of THAAD rounds, JASSM-ER, Tomahawks. Very expensive, exquisite.”

“Bottom line, though, is this is not about me. This is about two million retired service members,” Kelly said, noting that in arguments in his lawsuit against Hegseth, the Justice Department suggested last week that if military veterans wanted to exercise their First Amendment rights, they should give up their pension and healthcare. “How un-American is that?”

TRUMP SEES LEAKS OF INTERNAL DELIBERATIONS AS TREASON: Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has ordered acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to investigate leaks to the media about new stories that included details about “how he arrived at his decision to launch the war, and what his advisers had told him as he deliberated.”

“In one meeting, Trump passed a stack of news articles, he and other senior officials thought threatened national security, to Blanche with a sticky note on it that said ‘treason,’” the Journal reported, citing an administration official.

The preliminary investigation is not targeting only the leaders, but also the journalists who have written stories about what’s happening behind the scenes at the White House. The Wall Street Journal revealed that it has received grand jury subpoenas for records of Journal reporters. 

“The government’s subpoenas to The Wall Street Journal and our reporters represent an attack on constitutionally protected newsgathering. We will vigorously oppose this effort to stifle and intimidate essential reporting,” Ashok Sinha, the chief communications officer of Dow Jones, which publishes the Journal, said in a statement. 

Washington Examiner: Trump stuck in Iran-shaped ‘cul-de-sac’

Washington Examiner: Graham urges ‘reevaluation’ of US-Pakistan ties after Iranian aircraft reportedly sheltered

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Indications Trump sees Iran moving toward acceptable deal

Washington Examiner: Treasury sanctions network accused of helping IRGC sell Iranian oil to China

Washington Examiner: DOJ charges over 25 people in nationwide crackdown on Tren de Aragua

Wall Street Journal: Iran Thinks Trump Is Bluffing

New York Times: Elon Musk, Tim Cook and Other C.E.O.s to Accompany Trump to China

USNI News: New Navy Shipbuilding Plan: Trump-Class Battleship Will Be Nuclear-Powered, Carrier Design Is Under Review

8 a.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Budget Hearing – The Department of Defense,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Dan Caine http://appropriations.house.gov 

9 a.m. 1001 14th St. NW — Politico Security Summit with Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE); Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-M); House Intelligence ranking member Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT); House Armed Services ranking member Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA); Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Emil Michael; Reza Pahlavi, exiled crown prince of Iran; and Stephanie Hill, president of rotary and mission systems for Lockheed Martin https://www.politico.com/politicosecuritysummit

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “The Trump-Xi Summit: Are We Reading China Right?” with David Rennie, geopolitics editor at the Economist; and Aaron David Miller, senior fellow, CEIP American Statecraft Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/05/the-trump-xi-summit

10:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the Department of Defense,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Dan Caine https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings

12:30 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Fixing America’s Failed Middle East Strategy,” with Jason Campbell, MEI senior fellow; and Ariel Ahram, professor, Virginia Tech School of Public and International Affairs https://mei.edu/events/fixing-americas-failed-middle-east-strategy

2 p.m. H-140, U.S. Capitol — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Budget Hearing – The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps,” with testimony from Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith http://appropriations.house.gov

2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Global Aerospace and Defense Market Evolution and Emerging Commercial Success Factors,” with Jeff Napoliello, vice president of aerospace and defense enterprise solutions at Salesforce; John Simmons, vice president of mission at Saronic; and Tim Garnett, partner for private capital and aerospace, defense and government, at Oliver Wyman https://events.govexec.com/global-aerospace-and-defense/

9 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion: “Forging the Next Era for the U.S.-ROK Alliance in Economic and National Security,” with South Korean Ambassador to the U.S. Kang Kyung-hwa https://www.stimson.org/event/forging-the-next-era-for-the-us-rok

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Korea Foundation conference: “The Strategic Value of China to Korea,” with former U.S. Special Presidential Envoy Joseph Yun, former U.S. special representative for North Korea policy at the State Department; and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Multilateral Affairs Jung Pak http://www.csis.org

3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Department of the Air Force FY2027 Budget Request for Seapower and Projection Forces,” with testimony from William Bailey, performing the temporary duties of assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology, and logistics; Lt. Gen. David Tabor, deputy Air Force chief of staff for plans and programs http://www.armedservices.house

5:30 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club film screening and discussion: “Tiananmen Tonight,” focusing on “coverage of protests, human rights movements and the government,” part of its “Headliner” series,” with Susan Zirinsky, president, See It Now Studios; Bob Woodruff, correspondent, ABC News; and Tom Bettag, executive producer of ABC News “Nightline” and lecturer at the University of Maryland, College Park’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-screening-tiananmen-tonight

9:30 a.m. 4500 Patriot Circle, Fairfax, Va — George Mason University 2026 Commencement, with commencement speaker retired Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin https://www.gmu.edu/graduation

10 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Adm. Brad Cooper, commander, U.S. Central Command; and Air Force Gen. Dagvin Anderson, commander, U.S. Africa Command http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of the Navy FY2027 Budget Request,” with testimony from Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, and Marine Corps Commandant General Eric Smith, http://www.armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Lessons in Military Deterrence from the Iran War: U.S. Strategy in Contested Waters,” with Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis for Defense Priorities; Kelly Grieco, senior fellow of the Stimson Center’s Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program; Brandon Carr, studies associate at the Quincy Institute; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, editor-in-chief of Responsible Statecraft and senior adviser of the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/events/lessons-in-military-deterrence-from-the-iran-war

2 p.m. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Space Force budget priorities and modernization,” with Brig. Gen. Christopher Fernengel, director of plans and programs at U.S. Space Force https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/brig-gen-christopher-fernengel/

7:45 a.m. 300 First St. SE — National Institute for Deterrence Studies seminar: “U.S. strategic submarines,” with Rear Adm. Todd Weeks, program executive officer for strategic submarines https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/rear-admiral-todd-weeks

9 a.m. —  Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “North Korea diplomacy in a shifting geopolitical order,” with Jihwan Hwang, professor, international relations at the University of Seoul; Kyung-joo Jeon, chief of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis Center for Security and Strategy’s Korean Peninsula Security Division; Alexandre Mansourov, adjunct lecturer, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and co-lead of its Asia focus area; and Andrew Yeo, senior fellow in the Brookings Foreign Policy Program and Brookings Center for Asia Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/nk-diplomacy-shifting-geopolitical-order/

WEDNESDAY | MAY 20 2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing; “Defense Department personnel policies and programs in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program. http://www.armed-services.senate.gov