The Iran War Is Piling Up A List Of Surprises

We keep learning new things about the war with Iran. The new revelations haven’t added up to a clear picture yet, but they suggest the characteristics of a war that’s bigger than we’ve understood it to be.

First, over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Israeli military built a covert base inside Iraq to support its airstrikes against Iran, then attacked Iraqi troops who approached the base to investigate.

Second, a growing series of reports is showing that the war has involved more belligerents than we knew about. Reports over the weekend revealed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has conducted military strikes inside Iran, bombing a refinery in retaliation for Iranian attacks. Similar reports followed about the Saudi military striking targets inside Iran. No one in any of these countries will discuss the attacks, declining comment to journalists.

Finally, in what may be a preview of what a renewed war looks like if a tenuous ceasefire breaks down, the U.S. government website that publishes notices of foreign arms sales shows a recent buying spree in which Iran’s neighbors are stocking up on weapons. Significant new disclosures in May show major arms sales to Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Israel, including the sale of “ten thousand (10,000) Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System-II all-up-rounds advanced (single variant)” to Qatar and to Israel, and a smaller number of an air-to-air variant to the UAE.  

That system turns unguided rockets into precision weapons, so the purchase of 10,000 units suggests that the Qataris and Israelis anticipate the near-term need to strike a large list of targets with a high degree of accuracy.

President Donald Trump said yesterday that the ceasefire in the Iran War is on “life support.”

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Chris Bray is a senior correspondent at The Federalist and a former infantry sergeant in the U.S. Army. He has a history PhD from the University of California Los Angeles, not that it did him any good. He also posts on Substack, at "Tell Me How This Ends," here.