
Countries that are part of OPEC, the intergovernmental organization that oversees global oil markets, are cutting their output as oil demand has slowed due to higher energy prices amid the Iran war.
The slowed demand, in turn, led OPEC to cut its forecast for oil demand growth for the year. In its latest monthly update on Wednesday, the group of petroleum-exporting countries lowered its 2026 forecast from 1.38 million barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels per day.
OPEC’s crude oil production dropped by 1.73 million barrels per day to 18.98 million barrels in April. The broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes 10 non-OPEC nations in addition to the 11 members, declined by 1.74 million barrels per day to 33.19 million barrels per day.
Overall production among OPEC members has fallen by more than 30%, or 9.7 million barrels per day, since the war started.
Before the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz saw ships carrying about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily.
The key waterway remains effectively closed to commercial shipping due to competing blockades from the United States and Iran.
Despite the closed strait and the unresolved war, OPEC+ has agreed to proceed with a “symbolic” production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June. The measure shows nations are attempting to continue business amid global tensions regarding the war.
OPEC’s optimistic demand growth forecast for next year is 1.54 million barrels per day, an increase from its previous estimate of 1.34 million barrels per day.
The United Arab Emirates recently withdrew from OPEC to distance itself from Saudi Arabia, which leads the group. The UAE’s exit took effect on May 1, but the Gulf nation was still included in the April output numbers.
The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest oil producer last month, so its departure delivers a notable blow to the international alliance. The country aims to increase its output to 5 million barrels per day by 2027. Under OPEC, the UAE previously had a limit of about 3.5 million barrels per day.
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