Cassidy loses shot at reelection as Louisiana Senate race heads to runoff

Under Louisiana law, a runoff for the top two finishers occurs when none of the candidates win an outright majority. Cassidy attracted just 24.6% support, making him the first incumbent senator to lose a primary race in almost a decade.

His defeat represents a major victory for Trump, who had personally encouraged Letlow to challenge Cassidy and offered her his endorsement in January.

That endorsement failed to clear the primary field – Fleming, a former deputy chief of staff during Trump’s first term, effectively divided the anti-Cassidy vote. But the president achieved his ultimate goal, ousting Cassidy over his perceived disloyalty.

Trump congratulated Letlow on Saturday night, predicting “she will make a brilliant Senator” in a Truth Social post. The president fumed at Cassidy in a subsequent statement focusing on his conviction vote, cast after Trump was impeached in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

“His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!” Trump said. “I’d like to thank the Great People of the State of Louisiana, and this Big Victory will only make me work even harder for your success, and all that comes with it.”

In a speech conceding from the race, Cassidy said he felt “great” and that he’d called both Letlow and Fleming to congratulate them on their victory. Cassidy also took a jab at the president.

“When you participate in democracy, sometimes it doesn’t turn out the way you want it to,” Cassidy said. “But you don’t pout, you don’t whine, you don’t claim the election was stolen, you don’t find a reason, you don’t manufacture some excuse. You thank the voters for the privilege of representing the state or the country for as long as you’ve had that privilege, and that’s what I’m doing right now.”

Letlow and Fleming will now compete for the GOP nomination, a prize that is expected to guarantee one of them their first Senate term. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race in Louisiana as solidly Republican, and Trump won there comfortably in 2024.

Letlow, who won a special election in 2021 to represent the House seat held by her late husband, has leaned heavily into her Trump endorsement on the campaign trail. Fleming, a former congressman and founding member of the Freedom Caucus, has framed himself as the true conservative in the race. Both are seen as competitive heading into the runoff.

For months, Cassidy tried to overcome his impeachment vote. As a physician and chairman of the Senate’s health panel, Cassidy aligned himself with the White House on priorities such as healthcare reform and cast the deciding vote in favor of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. despite misgivings over his vaccine skepticism.

The overtures were not enough, however, to win over Trump, who has embarked on a revenge tour to punish electorally those who have crossed him. And since he lost the endorsement, Cassidy has grown more critical of the administration.

Earlier this month, the president’s allies successfully ousted several of the Indiana Republicans who refused to redraw the state’s House map. The next test will come on Tuesday, when Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) tries to fend off a Trump-backed challenger in Kentucky’s House primaries.

Massie has been an unreliable vote in the House and frustrated the White House with his focus on the Epstein files.

Cassidy has stared down a tough primary ever since Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) spearheaded an overhaul of how primaries are conducted in Louisiana, and Saturday was the first election testing the new system. Previously, Cassidy had benefitted from open jungle primaries that allowed Democrats to participate, but the change meant only Republican voters could now cast their ballot.

The move was seen as an effort to diminish Cassidy’s chances, as Landry has taken an outsize role in attempting to defeat Cassidy. The governor has since endorsed Letlow in the race and encouraged donors to back her.

Cassidy also faced headwinds from the Make America Healthy Again movement, which committed $1 million to backing Letlow through the Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC.

In terms of spending, Cassidy and his allies dwarfed the competition, airing the lion’s share of the $35 million that was poured into the race, and as recently as this week, Cassidy had predicted he would make the runoff. Still, polling ahead of the primary consistently showed him in second or third place.

The Senate primary took place Saturday even as Louisiana delayed a spate of House races in the middle of early voting. The decision by Landry came after a Supreme Court ruling on redistricting that is expected to pave the way for the state to redraw its House map.