The red lines Trump must protect in China

Unfortunately, the Trump administration has undermined this principle with the war in Iran. Prior to the war, I suggested, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is a nest of pests that must be contained and, when necessary, stamped out. Communist China is a den of apex predators that requires unceasing, absolute priority attention.”

The point stands. While the United States will likely soon reach a diplomatic accord with Iran, the substantial degradation of Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure has not led to regime change. But the war has caused global economic chaos. It has also heavily depleted munitions stocks that would be crucial in any future war with China. That’s a problem. If China ever wins a Pacific war against Taiwan and/or the U.S., Beijing’s victory will be catastrophic for American and global prosperity, human rights, and freedom.

Beijing views Taiwan as the “first and foremost” red line in its relationship with the U.S. Xi views the democratic island nation, little more than 80 miles off China’s coast, as an unresolved humiliation for the Chinese Communist Party. He believes that reunifying Taiwan under CCP authority is the ultimate test of Beijing’s destiny for global domination. Many U.S. military analysts believe Xi will attempt an invasion of the island by 2030. Trump at least somewhat recognizes this sensitivity, having observed that Taiwan is the “apple of [Xi’s] eye.”

But Xi also knows that Trump is a highly transactional leader. In turn, Trump must be cautious against making concessions on Taiwan in return for far lesser Chinese concessions to America.

The risk is that Trump might suspend planned arms sales to Taiwan or alter U.S. policy to oppose Taiwan’s independence from China directly. While Trump would accrue massive Chinese purchases of U.S. products in reciprocity, any such action would weaken Taiwan’s deterrent against Chinese attack, encourage Chinese escalation against the island, and damage America’s reputation as a defender of human freedom. Taiwan cannot afford to have its defensive posture weakened — uncertainty about U.S. commitment and the speed of a possible Chinese attack already make the island’s position precarious.

Making big concessions on Taiwan would also greatly jeopardize America’s alliance structure and the associated benefits of trade, diplomatic, and military influence it affords. Allies would view U.S. security guarantees as valuable only if they didn’t conflict with Trump’s narrow negotiating interests in any one moment. Their deference to America would transition into a deference for quid pro quo dealings with American adversaries. For all these reasons, Trump should recognize China’s sensitivity on Taiwan while reinforcing his support for the status quo.

Trump must also make clear to Xi that he will uphold America’s treaty defense obligations to the Philippines and Japan. Trump has undermined this with recent rhetoric toward Japan, which, under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is finally spending seriously on defense and boosting support for American global interests. In addition, the Philippines faces particularly aggressive Chinese efforts to seize control of waters within Manila’s exclusive economic zone.

Trump must also hold firm on the other U.S. red line issues of Chinese espionage, trade dumping, and AI.

On AI, Trump must make clear that as long as China undermines U.S. and allied security on the oceans, in international trade, and in cyberspace, he will continue to restrict exports of the most advanced semiconductor chips to Beijing. Those restrictions are crucial in that they prevent China from undercutting America’s leadership in the century-defining domain of AI and high-tech research. These restrictions also weaken China’s ability to strengthen its already highly formidable military.

On dumping, Xi’s favored strategy of using state-subsidized industries to offload artificially cheap goods into the U.S. market, Trump should warn that he will use tariffs to protect American industries from unfair competition.

On Chinese espionage, Trump should ensure Xi understands that China’s endemic theft of American intellectual property will carry consequences for Beijing in terms of targeted tariffs and, if necessary, broader punitive action. China is under significant economic pressure, so it cannot easily afford the continuation of high-level U.S. trade tensions. And while Trump must be wary of U.S. economic health in the context of the Iran war and approaching midterm elections, Xi is perpetually paranoid about the risk of economic dissatisfaction bleeding into political opposition to the CCP. Put simply, Trump can draw lines in the sand that Xi will be reluctant to cross.

This can be a positive summit that marginally reduces tensions, improves lines of communication, and reduces trade barriers at the margin. But Xi and the CCP have no interest in fairness. They seek maximalist gains at America’s expense.

Trump should be wary of making major concessions for narrow or short-lived economic gains.