Who Will Win the Cannes Film Festival Palme d’Or?

This year’s Cannes Film Festival may be light on studio movies and American star power so far, but by day four, we’ve already been hit with six films in competition that have varying chances at achieving a global profile. Some have North American distributors already, others are looking for a buyer. Some (like Asghar Farhadi’s “Parallel Tales”) were polarizing, for example, on the Screen International jury grid, but others (like Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland”) were more broadly revered.

Let’s take a look at titles in the competition that are vying to win the Palme d’Or, and where they stack up.

The festival opened on Tuesday, May 12, with Pierre Salvadori’s French farce “The Electric Kiss,” which is unlikely to make much noise among the jury led by Park Chan-wook, though it is in competition and technically eligible. That romantic comedy’s journey likely ends here in France, where the film has already opened.

Jurors include Chilean filmmaker Diego Céspedes, Ivorian actor Isaach de Bankolé, Irish-Scottish screenwriter Paul Laverty, actresses Demi Moore and Ruth Negga, actor Stellan Skarsgård, Belgian director Laura Wandel, and Chinese Oscar-winning director Chloé Zhao. Jurors year after year have mercurial tastes, which makes it an often fruitless effort to try and predict these things ahead of time.

The most divisive out of the competition so far, “Parallel Tales” suffered mostly poor reviews in the trades, but its very French cast (including Isabelle Huppert, Catherine Deneuve, Vincent Cassel, and Virginie Efira) made it a logical competition entry. Farhadi has ceased making movies in Iran until the ban on showing women sans headscarf onscreen is lifted, but this loose Krzysztof Kieślowski adaptation set in Paris played to a muted response in the Palais — and amongst reviewers. A Palme contender this one does not make; it is looking for a buyer.

Two Japanese films are earning warm reviews (and sizable standing ovations), with Koji Fukada’s rural artist portrait “Nagi Notes” (acquisitions title) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s immense story of unexpected friendship at the end of one’s life, “All of a Sudden” (Neon); it also stars Virginie Efira, who’s lined up as a potential Cannes Best Actress prize. Hamaguchi won the Best Screenplay award in 2021 for eventual Oscar winner “Drive My Car.” Re: Fukada, it’s his first time in competition after debuting “Love on Trial” out of comp in 2025; back in 2016, he won the Un Certain Regard jury prize for “Harmonium.”

Almost everyone’s been on board for Pawel Pawlikowski’s Thomas Mann postwar road trip movie “Fatherland” (MUBI), which stars Sandra Hüller, one of the most celebrated European actors currently working (she won the Berlinale best actress prize this year for “Rose,” also coming from MUBI). It earned glowing reviews and a strong response on Thursday. The Polish “Ida” filmmaker won the Cannes best director prize in 2018 for “Cold War,” his most recent narrative feature. Told in that film’s starkly composed, black-and-white style that keeps generous emotions on reserve until they are unleashed by the end, “Fatherland” is bound to win something out of Cannes unless every other movie that follows it is a masterpiece (we still have 18 competition titles to look at).

Charline Bourgeois-Tacquet’s “A Woman’s Life” debuted early in the festival, and stars beloved French actress Léa Drucker as a surgeon who strikes up a middle-aged fling with a writer. Response has been mixed to good, and Drucker is always a candidate for a Cannes best actress prize (she’s never won).

By the way, the buzziest films at Cannes haven’t even been in the competition — two Un Certain Regard titles, Jane Schoenbrun’s “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” and Jordan Firstman’s directing debut “Club Kid,” heated up the first week of the festival. The latter comedy is seeking a buyer.

Next up, we have Marie Kreutzer’s “Gentle Monster,” Hirokazu Kore-eda’s “Sheep in the Box,” James Gray’s “Paper Tiger,” and more to check out over the coming days. Below, here are the best odds for these films so far. Please remember these are educated guesses based on reviews and word of mouth — a jury’s gonna jury, after all.

“Minotaur,” Andrey Zvyagintsev “The Beloved,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen   “The Man I Love,” Ira Sachs  “Paper Tiger,” James Gray “Moulin,” László Nemes “Histoires de la Nuit,” Léa Mysius  “Fjord,” Cristian Mungiu “Notre Salut,” Emmanuel Marre “Gentle Monster,” Marie Kreutzer   “Nagi Notes,” Koji Fukada “Hope,” Na Hong-Jin “Sheep in the Box,” Hirokazu Kore-eda “Garance,” Jeanne Herry “The Unknown,” Arthur Harari “The Dreamed Adventure,” Valeska Grisebach “Coward,” Lukas Dhont “The Black Ball,” Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo “Bitter Christmas,” Pedro Almodóvar