What’s Trump’s next move in Iran?

And more than a month later, Iran’s surviving hard-line leaders are still holding fast to that hole card. Despite a U.S. naval blockade that prevents Iran from exporting its own oil.

Call it “The Great Strait Stalemate,” says Brett McGurk, a former top U.S. national security official who is now an analyst for CNN. “I’ve negotiated with the Iranians … and when they have an asset, whether it’s a hostage, something else, they will not give it up. So, it’s kind of like a hostage situation.”

Trump insists he is focused squarely on achieving a singular outcome — ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.

Time after time, Trump has thought he was close to a deal. Only to find that instead of giving in, the Iranians were digging in.

When he received Tehran’s response to his latest proposed memorandum of understanding, delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, Trump hit the roof. Calling it “garbage and “totally unacceptable.”

“I’ve had a deal with them four or five times. They change their mind,” Trump said. “They’re very dishonorable people, the leadership … they’re mind changers.”

One option for Trump would be to simply declare victory and leave the problem of the strait to others. Including European allies and China, who Trump believes need the strait open more than the United States does.

After all, Trump has insisted Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated. And he said it will take them 20 years to rebuild.

But leaving the strait in worse shape than he found it, and walking away without an ironclad nuclear deal would be a humiliatingly small return on investment for a war that’s already cost more than $30 billion. With 14 Americans dead and more than 400 wounded.

Plus, it’s not exactly true that the U.S. doesn’t need the strait reopened. Oil is a fungible commodity, and, therefore, the supply of oil on the world market sets the price for everyone. Including the U.S., as evidenced by the recent jump in gasoline prices.

Options on the table

The U.S. could use military force to take control of the strait and escort ships through it. That’s a risky prospect as evidenced by the short-lived “Project Freedom,” in which two U.S destroyers had to shoot their way in and then out of the Persian Gulf and to liberate two U.S.-flagged commercial ships.

“This is where asymmetrics come in,” McGurk said. “The Iranians have these drones, the Shahed drones, which can fly 1,500 kilometers. So, let’s say 1,000 miles. They can be fired from anywhere in the Hormuz mountains, which is inland from Iran, and hit a tanker, slow moving tanker, which has to go through this choke point. To stop that is, it’s a needle in a haystack game.”

Retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former Supreme NATO commander, says the U.S. has the wherewithal to reopen the strait by military force. But for it to remain open in the face of Iranian threats would, in his estimation, require allies.

“If we’re going to keep it open with Iran pushing back, we really want to get Europeans involved, Stavridis told CNN. “And they have the capability. They have excellent minesweepers, they have guided missile frigates, destroyers, cruisers, and they have intelligence networks.”

In testimony before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, War Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon has drawn up plans for what Trump has called “Project Freedom Plus,” a second try at guiding ships through the strait. 

“We have a range of options, as the chairman [of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] and I have discussed extensively, mostly privately. But some in public, to ensure that transit would continue, should the president or others want us to go in that direction,” Hegseth testified.

The Pentagon has been accused, mostly by Democrats, but also by nonpartisan think tanks, of vastly overstating the effectiveness of Operation Epic Fury. While understating the extent of Iran’s remaining drone and missile arsenals.

Trump has said Iran has only 18% or 19% of its ballistic missiles left, while a classified U.S. intelligence assessment has put the percentage of missiles and launchers at 70%, according to the New York Times.

“Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway,” the report said.

“Unwelcome news if it’s the truth,” Stavridis said on CNN. “The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming the critical path in this, and if Iran does in fact have considerable — particularly short-range — tactical and strategic ballistic missiles, that’s a real problem.”

The Pentagon is confirming neither the New York Times report nor Trump’s public pronouncements. But either way, the numbers suggest there are still significant targets to be hit should Trump decide to resume major combat operations. 

In his congressional testimony, Hegseth admonished lawmakers for being too willing to write off a military campaign that is not yet three months old.

“I don’t think enough has been stated about the blockade, and the power of the blockade, and the dilemma that our blockade creates for them,” Hegseth said, suggesting Iran may yet crack. “They can’t move anything out of Iranian ports, and over, I think it’s 65 ships at this point have been turned around or disabled. The economic pressure that creates on them greatly outstrips the pressure on us.”

Trump’s first national security adviser, retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, agrees with Hegseth that it’s a mistake to think Iran has the upper hand.

“I think what we’re up against is the intransigence of a regime that retains this permanent hostility to the Great Satan, the United States, the little Satan, Israel, and its Arab neighbors,” McMaster told CNN’s Anderson Cooper.

“There’s also been, Anderson, a big disparity between the massive damage that has been done to this regime, its military capabilities, and the portrayal of Iran having some kind of an advantage,” McMaster said. “I think Iran really is in a desperate situation.”

McMaster concluded, “I think that because of the intransigence of the regime and because President Trump won’t accept an agreement, that’s unacceptable. I think the chances are quite high that there will be a continuation of this campaign. And I think the regime is making another huge mistake, they’re driving past another off-ramp.”