Did Trump do Democrats an attack-ad favor on Iran and the economy?

Trump added, “I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.”

On Iran, this was a form of message discipline. Trump has emphasized to everyone who has questioned him about the war, from Pope Leo XIV to the media to his erstwhile allies in the podcast space to Democratic elected officials, that denying Tehran access to nuclear weapons was the main point of the exercise.

Trump likely does not want to undercut his negotiating position with Iran or cause the Iranians to think he is too eager to make a deal because of the global economic pain inflicted by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

It is also possible that Trump misheard the question as being about America’s national financial situation, perhaps as in the federal government, rather than that of individual Americans, who will be voting on whether Republicans continue to control Congress in the midterm elections this year.

Nevertheless, Democrats are sure to like “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” and “I don’t think about anybody.”

Both lines reinforce the Democrats’ messaging about Trump prioritizing foreign affairs and a new war in the Middle East over affordability and domestic economic concerns.

Inflation rose to 3.8% in April, its highest mark since 2023, as the Iran war increased energy prices. 

While still well below the 41-year high inflation reached under former President Joe Biden, Trump was elected in large part because voters were unhappy with the high prices wreaking havoc on the economy while the Democrats were in office. This isn’t that.

Trump’s overall job approval rating sits at 40.2%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. On the economy, his approval rating is 36.7%. On inflation, it is just 29.6%. On military action in Iran, it’s 39.6%.

Democrats currently enjoy a 6.6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters wish to see control Congress.

The war could be over by the midterm elections. From the beginning, Trump and other administration officials have vowed it will be short.

Trump frequently reminds reporters that the war has been much shorter than Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, or World War II, even if it hasn’t been quite as brief as he initially promised.

Whether energy prices can fall quickly enough for the elections is more difficult to say. Energy Secretary Chris Wright briefly ended up in the doghouse for appearing to signal the answer was no.

Trump is nevertheless looking for other ways to provide relief, such as suspending the federal gasoline tax, which would require congressional approval.

But the midterm elections, like the 2024 elections and 2025 off-year races before them, will probably be decided by how voters feel about the economy.

History will judge whether Trump prevented Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or altered the balance of power in the Middle East.

The voters are likely to render their own judgment, heavily based on their financial situations, far sooner than that.