Russia plans to attack Ukraine or NATO from Belarus, Zelensky says

Russia is stepping up efforts to drag Belarus into its war against Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15, after receiving a briefing from Ukraine's military and intelligence services.

Moscow has made fresh contact with Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, in an effort to convince him to "join new acts acts of aggression," according to Zelensky, who claimed to "be in possession of the details of the conversation" between the two countries.

Belarus' armed forces, widely understood to be poorly-motivated, outdated, and unprepared for the modern drone-dominated warfare raging in Ukraine, have not yet been actively involved in Russia's war.

However, Minsk has allowed its territory, including a state border with Ukraine stretching over 1,000 kilometers, to be used by Russian forces in its war of aggression, both as a launch site for drone and missile strikes and, crucially, as the staging point for the initial attack on Kyiv.

Unsuccessful in attempts to break through the Ukrainian defense in the east and south of the country, Russia is weighing up new offensive operations in the areas of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts, Zelensky said.

These border areas have been fortified since the withdrawal of Russian troops in spring, the overstretched nature of the Ukrainian military means that the border areas still could present a weak point for Kyiv if the attacking force was large enough.

Moscow is also considering using Belarusian territory to attack neighboring NATO member states, Zelensky said.

The Suwalki Gap, the shared border of Poland and Lithuania that runs through a 70 kilometer-wide corridor between Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, has long been considered a key weakness in the defense of NATO's eastern flank.

In his message on social media, the president issued a direct warning to his Belarusian counterpart.

"Ukraine will undoubtedly defend itself and its people if Alexander Lukashenko makes a mistake and decides to support this Russian intention as well," Zelensky wrote.

"I have instructed our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine to strengthen the relevant direction and present a plan for our response, which will be considered and approved at the headquarters."

On May 4, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said Belarus is developing logistics routes, training grounds, and other infrastructure in coordination with Russia, warning that Minsk remains aligned with Moscow’s war effort.

Demchenko said the current Russian troop presence in Belarus does not pose an immediate direct threat, but stressed that the infrastructure being built could be activated by Russia at any time.

Earlier, on April 17, Zelensky reported that new roads and artillery positions are being set up in Belarus alongside Ukraine's northern border.